Sunday, August 21, 2011

I timori del cigno nero

Quello che preoccupa è invece la possibilità che si realizzi un "cigno nero". Un evento raro e catastrofico, detto anche di coda. Evento che, giorno dopo giorno, sta diventando sempre più probabile e che sappiamo ha la caratteristica di manifestarsi nel modo più naturale e prevedibile possibile.
In fondo, le grandi depressioni sono il frutto degli errori di politica economica. Di errori già ne sono stati fatti abbastanza: uno stimolo di politica fiscale insufficiente negli Stati Uniti, il rientro anticipato verso l'austerità fiscale e monetaria in Europa, la mancata regolamentazione degli intermediari finanziari, la tragedia greca che per l'imbarazzante incapacità dei politici europei è divenuta tragedia europea a cui ha fatto da controcanto il dibattito inutile sul limite del debito negli Stati Uniti. Non si può sbagliare nuovamente e, per fortuna, ci sono ancora armi a disposizione.

Gli Stati Uniti possono contribuire con un nuovo stimolo di politica fiscale che crei domanda di beni e di lavoro e che colmi quel buco scavato dal crollo degli investimenti in edilizia. La fuga dei capitali verso la qualità ha portato i rendimenti dei titoli decennali americani a valori irrisori, il 2%. Sarebbe un grave errore ora avere paura della sostenibilità del debito pubblico americano e non direzionare questi capitali verso un ulteriore stimolo di domanda aggregata. Qualsiasi uso pubblico sarebbe più produttivo rispetto al non fare nulla e lasciare che l'economia imploda su se stessa.
una delle più belle lezioni sulla Grande Depressione viene non da Keynes ma da Milton Friedman, il padre del monetarismo, che con Anna Schwartz ha mostrato come la contrazione degli aggregati monetari sia stata una causa del perdurare della Grande Depressione. Non si può commettere lo stesso errore

is only a black swan the first time
when it reoccurs is because
"none" of the causes has been corrected
"none" of the causes has been removed
and holy "business as usual" has been reestablished
is only a black swan the first time
the second time it happens on the "same" tools and instruments
is the "empirical" prove of a "conspiracy"

now there may be other "different types" of black swans
we are in an age of resources depletion "with no precedents in history"
we are at a population level "with no precedents in history"
we are at a climate situation that may have had precedents
"but" "we don't have enough records to asses value at risk
we are proceeding in "uncharted territory"
so we are certain we are going to hit "a number of black swans"
it is unpredictable
that is a reason more to brace for "twice" or "thrice" the worse
does not seem likely
unless the current president quits and we go to elections
"and" if the GOP may win
then it will be worse
because the GOP favors letting everybody
"but" big banking, big churches and big oil go broke
for them the GOP is socialist
but for the rest of America, is conservative
the free market applies only "outside"
the lobby interest of their puppet masters

now there must be a reason of why
some European countries are pursuing big bank interest
and at the same time wall street interest
one is that "some" banks, guess which ones
masters of the political puppets
have as much interest in Europe as in the US
and "maybe" are blackmailing even their own governments
well, there is one known method of stabilizing a depression
which is large stimulus and large infrastructure work
the "new deal" has been verified to work in the facts
not "to solve the problem in long term"
but "to stabilize the markets" flooring the drop at one steady level
nobody knows the empirical solution at the end
the war came "before" the solution

Milton Friedman theory has never been used in correcting a "very severe" depression
but the problem is there, surely
this depression, "is 1929 at the cube"
and possibly the only solution that could be attempted in that direction
is discouraging large capital liquidity hoarding
and discouraging pure monetary profit
thus forcing reinvestment in productive activities

the Swiss maybe are right with the negative rates
and the French and German probably are right
with the Tobin tax
probably should be "very high"
make all those "money changers"
invest in "real economy" instead than "casino economy"
"for their sake"
because if the monetary system crashes
the "intrinsic value" of money does not go that far


The Black Swan and the Bell Curve

Many developments in the last few years have suggested that general public concern about global warming is much shallower than one might have supposed earlier in the decade, most recently Germany's decisions to end reliance on nuclear energy entirely and accelerate the phase-out of currently operating reactors. That means much more dependence in the next decade on domestic coal and natural gas mainly imported from the Russian sphere, and probably somewhat greater imports of nuclear-generated electricity from France. And it means that Germany is very unlikely to meet its ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goal--a cut of 40 percent by 2020, vis-a-vis the 1990 level.
despite the consistency of extreme weather events with climate model predictions. Why did the president brood about such events being "beyond our power to control," she wonders, in his recent visit to tornado-ravaged Joplin, Missouri?
How much worse could they be? In an agricultural collapse scenario, we could be talking about millions, hundreds of millions or even billions of deaths--not the "mere" 20,000-30,000 premature deaths that have followed from the Chernobyl accident.
The Financial Times reported yesterday that 46 percent of the United States has been either abnormally wet or abnormally dry this spring; 21 percent is normal. "It is highly improbable that the remarkable extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011 could have all happened in such a short period of time without some powerful climate-altering force at work," said Southern Methodist University business professor Bernard Weinstein, quoted in the FT. "I expect that by 20 to 30 years from now, extreme weather years like we witnessed in 2010 will become the new normal."

The re-insurance company Munich Re has arrived at a similar conclusion: "The only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-related catastrophes is climate change. The view that weather extremes are more frequent and intense due to global warming coincides with the current state of scientific knowledge."

this seems to follow "exactly" wall street desires
both on Kyoto, where wall street position is known
"and" on nuclear, renounce which obviously makes happy
wall street oil and gas world monopoly interest
well, if you are on puppets masters payroll
you have to do what you have to do
but then you have to go there and pretend you care
exaggerating twenty or thirty thousand deaths
but "ignoring" where "peak planet"
can kill, "and most likely will"
"billions" of people of famine and natural disasters
"definitively points to a world scale conspiracy"
at the center "can only be"
the usual christos-bankster oil masters lobbies

again, that is why "all the evidence"
points to a planetary "religions banking" conspiracy
and the ones that talk "only" of "global warming"
without connecting the dots
to religiously convenient "irresponsible procreation" and "overpopulation"
and to oil-banking cartel convenient "peak oil" and "peak everything"
"are part of the conspiracy"
"they don't want you to know the causes"
"because of the responsibility of their puppet masters"
"the holy banksters religious fraud"
so they talk only of the effects
and "pretend" to be serious
finding supporters and deniers
and using the issue
as a weapon of "mass distraction and deception"
those are the effects of "wild capitalism"
also known as the wall street christos-banksters-kleptocracy
we have seen the official dogma in history
"the earth is flat and sits on four pillars"
"and the universe rotates around it"
monetary economics, another religion



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