Sunday, September 06, 2009



I have often been asked what it would take to bring the consumer credit picture back into balance with incomes. My "off the cuff" estimate was that we had to take a 10% adjustment to GDP in 2000, a 20% adjustment now, and that credit would have had to contract by about 20% in 2000.

This graph makes it clear - as of 2006 the answer is "roughly a 40% decrease in credit outstanding, a 40% increase in per-capita income, or any combination of the two."

Of note the "correction" required was 25% in 2000.

It was 40% in 2007.

It is likely better than 50% now.

... he is more optimistic than me ...
... I thought we were at 80% ...


# posted by intcoex : 5:07 PM




<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]